Found here
forge.joomlapolis.com/issues/4237
onBeforeUserConfirmationRequest
So guess I could add an action (type = action) with this trigger onBeforeUserConfirmationRequest to check the value in the CONFIRMED field to see if already confirmed.... and if NOT already confirmed then call my other three actions that check things and send welcome email.
Then if I remove the trigger OnAfterUserConfrmation from each of these 3 email actions they wont run unless this first action tells them to
Sound good?