The values you can condition against are as follows. They directly relate to their database column or object variable. Specifically "Unpaid Basket last updated Date" relates to "time_initiated" within _cbsubs_payment_baskets. Using this information you can better configure your conditions as you'll be able to see the raw value it's conditioning against. My guess for your usage is it's supposed to be "Unpaid Basket last updated Date".

subscription_date = Subscription's subscription Date
last_renewed_date = Subscription's Last renewed Date
expiry_date = Subscription's Expiry Date
payment_date = Merchandise's or Donation's Payment Date
time_initiated = Unpaid Basket last updated Date
time_completed = Paid Basket payment Date
registerDate = Member's Sign-up Registration Date
lastvisitDate = Member's Last Online Date
lastupdatedate = Member's Last Profile Update Date

Changing the state of the basket does not trigger a mailer. You need to trigger the mailer using the URLs. The mailer then checks against those conditions to determine recipients. If you want to email on a triggered event you probably need to use CB Auto Actions acting on the below triggers.

Plan Active
Triggers: onCPayUserStateChange
User: Automatic
Access: Everybody
Conditional 1: [var3] Equal To PLAN_ID_HERE
Conditional 2: [var2] Equal To A

Plan Expired
Triggers: onCPayUserStateChange
User: Automatic
Access: Everybody
Conditional 1: [var3] Equal To PLAN_ID_HERE
Conditional 2: [var2] Equal To X

[var2] is the plan status, which can be any of the following.

A = Active
R = Registered Unpaid
X = Expired
C = Unsubscribed
U = Upgraded to other
I = Invalid

Not sure if a different trigger is needed for specific Offline usage though.